{"id":4234,"date":"2017-02-08T10:00:58","date_gmt":"2017-02-08T09:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/?p=4234"},"modified":"2017-02-10T15:43:46","modified_gmt":"2017-02-10T14:43:46","slug":"twitter-exit-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls","title":{"rendered":"Twitter and Exit Polls: what could go wrong?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Many see the advent of social media as a boost for democracy. Information is now shared through cyberspace unfettered by government or media censorship, allowing people to participate freely in democratic discourse. However, when exit polls and twitter mix it can have negative consequences for democracy. Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n

In a previous blog post<\/a> we touched on the influence prematurely released exit polling data can have on an election. Namely, there have been times when news networks have predicted the outcome of an election before polling stations have closed. This can depress voter turnout, as people believe the election has already been decided. As a consequence, major news networks in the US no longer publish exit poll data before polling stations close.<\/p>\n

Enter Twitter<\/h3>\n

Traditional news organisations are, however, no longer the only source of news in the digital age. Twitter has evolved into what some describe as the \u201c21st Century Newspaper\u201d. So even if major news organisations have agreed not to prematurely publish sensitive exit polling data, what\u2019s stopping this information being leaked on twitter?<\/p>\n

Exit polls in Germany<\/h3>\n

Unlike in the US, in Germany, it\u2019s a criminal offence to prematurely publish exit polling data over any medium. If found guilty, leakers face paying a fine of 50,000 euros (54,000USD).<\/p>\n

The issue came to a head during the 2009 regional elections in Germany. 90 minutes before polling stations had closed, two Twitter users posted the \u2018outcomes\u2019<\/a> of the election for the regions of Thuringia, Saarland and Saxony. These posts were subsequently re-shared throughout the twitter-verse, raising the ire of officials in the german electoral commission.<\/p>\n

It was suspected the posts had been leaked from either the media or political insiders – both of which have early access to exit polling data. In the worst-case scenario, it was feared the results of the election may be declared invalid. Luckily (and especially so for the offenders) no such scenario came to pass.<\/p>\n

The lesson from this is clear, especially from people involved with exit polling data: hold off on the sensitive tweets until after polling stations have closed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Many see the advent of social media as a boost for democracy. Information is now shared through cyberspace unfettered by government or media censorship, allowing people to participate freely in democratic discourse. However, when exit polls and twitter mix it can have negative consequences for democracy. Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":274,"featured_media":4162,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","ub_ctt_via":"","spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true},"categories":[893],"tags":[840,1039,1070,1099,458,1097,842],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Electoral_Research.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Charles Harding","author_link":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/author\/c-harding"},"yoast_head":"\nTwitter and Exit Polls: what's the problem when they mix?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Both twitter and exit polls are regarded as being important to the democratic process. Sometimes, however, they can combine to damage democracy. Learn more!\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Twitter and Exit Polls: what's the problem when they mix?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Both twitter and exit polls are regarded as being important to the democratic process. Sometimes, however, they can combine to damage democracy. Learn more!\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"POLYAS\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-02-08T09:00:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-02-10T14:43:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Electoral_Research.png?fit=860%2C210&ssl=1\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"860\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"210\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Charles Harding\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Verfasst von\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Charles Harding\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Gesch\u00e4tzte Lesezeit\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 Minuten\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls\",\"name\":\"Twitter and Exit Polls: what's the problem when they mix?\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2017-02-08T09:00:58+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-02-10T14:43:46+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/3b9240fa164074e2fc773e7fcd238148\"},\"description\":\"Both twitter and exit polls are regarded as being important to the democratic process. Sometimes, however, they can combine to damage democracy. Learn more!\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"de-DE\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/de\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Twitter and Exit Polls: what could go wrong?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"POLYAS\",\"description\":\"the blog for secure online voting\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"de-DE\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/3b9240fa164074e2fc773e7fcd238148\",\"name\":\"Charles Harding\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"de-DE\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a9eee54a942871db9227087900a40d73?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a9eee54a942871db9227087900a40d73?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Charles Harding\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/www.polyas.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/author\/c-harding\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Twitter and Exit Polls: what's the problem when they mix?","description":"Both twitter and exit polls are regarded as being important to the democratic process. Sometimes, however, they can combine to damage democracy. Learn more!","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls","og_locale":"de_DE","og_type":"article","og_title":"Twitter and Exit Polls: what's the problem when they mix?","og_description":"Both twitter and exit polls are regarded as being important to the democratic process. Sometimes, however, they can combine to damage democracy. Learn more!","og_url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls","og_site_name":"POLYAS","article_published_time":"2017-02-08T09:00:58+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-02-10T14:43:46+00:00","og_image":[{"width":860,"height":210,"url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Electoral_Research.png?fit=860%2C210&ssl=1","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Charles Harding","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Verfasst von":"Charles Harding","Gesch\u00e4tzte Lesezeit":"2 Minuten"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls","url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls","name":"Twitter and Exit Polls: what's the problem when they mix?","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/#website"},"datePublished":"2017-02-08T09:00:58+00:00","dateModified":"2017-02-10T14:43:46+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/3b9240fa164074e2fc773e7fcd238148"},"description":"Both twitter and exit polls are regarded as being important to the democratic process. Sometimes, however, they can combine to damage democracy. Learn more!","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"de-DE","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/twitter-exit-polls#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/de"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Twitter and Exit Polls: what could go wrong?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/","name":"POLYAS","description":"the blog for secure online voting","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"de-DE"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/3b9240fa164074e2fc773e7fcd238148","name":"Charles Harding","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"de-DE","@id":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a9eee54a942871db9227087900a40d73?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a9eee54a942871db9227087900a40d73?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Charles Harding"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.polyas.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/author\/c-harding"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Electoral_Research.png","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p72Pnr-16i","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4101,"url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/exit-polls-history","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":0},"title":"History of Exit Polls","date":"26\/01\/2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Exit polls are surveys which ask people how they voted directly after leaving the polling station. Since maintaining the secrecy of the ballot is a pillar of democracy, conducting exit polls is the only way to gain insights into how and why people voted in a particular way on election\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Electoral research"","img":{"alt_text":"Read more about successful election management in associations","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Electoral_Research.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4279,"url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/electoral-research\/digital-exit-polling","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":1},"title":"Exit polling – a new digital era?","date":"15\/02\/2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The major US news networks that make up the National Election Pool have enjoyed a monopoly over the collection of exit polling data for almost three decades. However, the 2016 presidential election saw the emergence of some new, digitally minded individuals involved in exit polling. Exit polling data analyzed by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Electoral research"","img":{"alt_text":"Read more about successful election management in associations","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Electoral_Research.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4195,"url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/polyas\/opinion-polls-vs-exit-polls","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":2},"title":"Opinion Polls vs Exit Polls","date":"01\/02\/2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Much like exit polls, opinion polls are surveys which ask members of the public certain questions relating to politics and elections. However, there are a number of key features which distinguish opinion polls from exit polls. Opinion Polls vs Exit Polls One key difference between exit polls and opinion polls\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "About POLYAS"","img":{"alt_text":"Read more about successful election management in associations","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/Electoral_Research.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":847,"url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/digital-democracy\/to-international-day-of-democracy-the-internet-fosters-participation-and-inclusion","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":3},"title":"To International Day of Democracy: the internet fosters participation and inclusion","date":"16\/09\/2015","format":false,"excerpt":"A day for democracy! The United Nations created the International Day of Democracy in 2007. Each year on 15th September we look at the state of democracy around the world. The Democracy Day theme this year is \u201cSpace for Civil Society\u201d, because if the relationship between state and citizens is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Digital Democracy"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/31533000_l1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":5017,"url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/increasing-voter-turnout\/mandatory-voting","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":4},"title":"Voter Participation: For and Against Mandatory Voting","date":"17\/05\/2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Mandatory\u00a0voting is a much-debated topic whenever elections roll around. There are a number of countries around the world that require their citizens to show up at the polls on election day. In this installment of our blog series on voter participation, we discuss the arguments for and against compulsory voting.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Voter-turnout"","img":{"alt_text":"Online Voting Political Elections","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/Voting-Age.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":623,"url":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/en\/online-elections\/poll-brits-want-online-voting","url_meta":{"origin":4234,"position":5},"title":"Poll: Brits want online voting","date":"22\/07\/2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The majority of British citizens want the opportunity to vote online. This was revealed by two polls from the market research institute YouGov, commissioned by WebRoots Democracy. Majority for online election of the mayor of London London's next mayoral election is taking place in May 2016. Along with voting in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Elections News"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/labour_party_online_voting_polyas.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4234"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/274"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4234"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4234\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4271,"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4234\/revisions\/4271"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4234"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.polyas.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}